Within 18 months we will have the referendum on whether we should stay in the European Union or leave. It's going to be very interesting how the arguments for and against are discussed. What do the forum members think will happen?
Bacchus. Why not provide your opinion and then I'll see if you need putting right....or not!!
I wonder if Kate Green realised this would happen so soon. Time for the electorate to remember who said and did what.
What do all our erudite contributors think about the surprise general election
lets have some predictions, and fun .
Therein lies the problem. On the 5th April I told you that my evidence comes from the company websites not the Daily Mail. In fact, not one piece of information provided to you comes from the Daily Mail and the truth is, I don't read the Daily Mail as a rule.
The problem for people who support Remain, but have no evidence to back up their arguments, is that they then resort to the 'racism' and 'reading the Daily Mail' card. You confim your supposition because you 'fear' the abject failure, again, there is no evidence of this. All this industry investing billions in the UK only to have to invest billions to get back out and into Europe is a laughable suggestion.
Despite my best efforts to allay your fears you seem to dismiss all the positive evidence that I have provided. Today we see the highest employment rate since 1971 (source Sky News - not the Daily Mail) despite the doom mongers providing loss of jobs forecast immediately following a Brexit vote. I would be prepared to listen to any sourced, well reasoned argument but I consider that you are unable to provide any.
A quote from the Financial TImes (extremely Pro Remain) - 'Gilt strength signals unease over Brexit' which seems to support your view but then, last year, they forecast 'UK gilts fall on hard Brexit fear'. The gullible swallow this hook, line and sinker and then spout supposition as facts.
The comment regarding the pound is free fall is just wrong. If you bothered to research you would find that the £ to Euro on 18 November 2015 was 1.42. It then fell steadily until April 2017 when it was 1.23 even though the polls and talk was that we would likely remain in the EU. There was a limited rise until shortly before the referendum where it peaked around 1.30 and then following the vote for freedom it plummeted to 1.16 by July 2017.
Around October it bottomed out at 1.10 but is now in the region of 1.18. The point of this is that the pound was significantly overvalued at 1.42. The Bank of England admitted as much which is why there was a downward pressure on the pound. Even without Brexit we would have a £ value in the region we are currently at.
Of course, this does not suit your freefall £ argument but consider it debunked.
Bacchus, we're out of Europe whether you like it or not. Bleating about it won't get a better deal than we will end up with and it's also never going to change the decision of the majority who voted. Why not just get on with ensuring we get the best deal possible?
Oh, and by the way, £50bn??? Any evidence yet?
The pound doesn't seem to me to be in free fall. A quick glance at the rate for the pound against the US dollar over the last year shows it dropping in the summer months, then bouncing along between 1.21 and 1.26 (dollars to the pound) ever since.
Alf I suggest you stop absorbing all the piffle you are reading in the Daily Mail and other right wing propaganda sheets. We will see what happens when the second rate British negotiators try their best .
I fear they are doomed to abject failure,and they will only exacerbate the self harm we have inflicted on ourselves .When tariffs are applied then you will see the mass exodus of our car manufacturers along with the pound plunging ever lower ( if it's all so great why is the pound in free fall).
The internal market of the EU is huge and they will get along just fine, and probably be glad to see the back of the carping, winging, self-centred xenophobic island that didn't want to stay in the club.
But hey you keep on whistling and covering your ears oblivious to reality.
Bacchus. Thank you for your vision. I choose my words carefully because, once again, you provide information portrayed as fact but is, in reality, just supposition. You may recognise it when the use of words such as probably, chance, potentially, etc!
If your scenario were correct then our trade to non-European countries would be held up in the endless red tape you portray. It doesn’t because it is not accurate. We do deals all around the world with countries who do not have the same regulations as us and we only allow the business that corresponds with our regulations. This is not a European ideal, it existed before Europe.
You seem to repeatedly trot out the threats of the Remain campaign and EU negotiators but they are simply threats. The truth of the situation is that nearly every supposed threat has not materialised. Even today the EY Item Club has revised their GDP figures to indicate growth four times their post Brexit forecast. At the moment the UK is doing better than any European country and non EU countries are lining up to deal with us.
In the real world where somebody has the upper hand, such as the UK, we can control much of the direction. I would love to see a scenario where Germany maintains their EU contribution as now when they lose the $43.6 billion pounds of trade with the UK. Similarly France ($25.9 billion), Netherlands (25.6 billion), Ireland ($22.9 billion). It will be a ridiculous scenario for the EU to punish its members by not agreeing a trade deal with us because, unlike us, the EU members could not seek to offset the loss of trade by going elsewhere. The UK can and will do this.
If the EU chooses to destabilise their own community by not agreeing the trade deals, then expect further anti-EU support. I am glad that the stance we may take is to walk away from the table without a deal rather than to submit to the machinations of unelected bureaucrats.
I would suggest one thing. Take a look at the opposing view to your EU Utopia. You may find that the real evidence is far from the media driven, anti-brexit Remain arguments you espouse.
The major concern is about non-tariff barriers - things like mutual recognition of health and safety standards. Without them, goods are stopped at the border for lengthy and bureaucratically expensive checks. Organising a society for suddenly starting a trading life like this requires lots of work setting up domestic regulators and transferring legal requirements. Without them, there would be chaos: Lorries queuing at the border, shipments stopped and detained, airplanes unable to fly.
That would just be the start of the nightmare if Article 50 ends with no deal. A hard border in Ireland would spring up overnight. The chances of Scotland voting Yes in an independence referendum would shoot up with it. Millions of EU citizens in Britain and British citizens in the EU would be thrown into even worse uncertainty about their status, with no end to it in sight. The broken-down negotiations over the divorce bill would probably lead to a legal challenge - God knows in which court - forcing Britain to try to sign trade deals with other countries while battling an unseemly dispute with its main trading partner. Trade disputes would also start against the UK in the WTO, as the schedules it puts down for trade are potentially contested by the EU and others, particularly on tariff rate quotas.
"In other words, the will of the people."
There is no way which the return to an absolute parliamentry majority of a political party which almost two thirds of those voting did not want or the installation of a president who polled fewer votes than his opponant can be considered to be the will of the people.
For their own reasons the Tories want strict thresholds of validity on industrial ballots but failed to include such conditions on a much more important ballot, that concerning the very future direction of the UK. Was it incompetance or just that they never gave it a thought that they might actually loose?
> Are you saying you were wrong then, or you're a hypocrite now? You can't hold both views at the same time.
I'm suggesting neither, but thanks for the weak counterargument.
Contrary to your incorrect opinions, Bacchus, all my quotes come from the relevant company or organisation websites rather than Fleet Street. Of course, you are free to invent your own interpretation of the facts provided to suit your argument.
I do note with interest that you seek to use your own supposition as fact when it comes to how the negotiations will be conducted. From my point of view, I see significant difficulties with your vision. The EU export more to the UK than we export to the EU. If they play hardball with us then it will be at their own cost. In addition, ‘threats’ to lower our corporation tax sent some parts of the EU into apoplexy. They have been pressurising Ireland for years because they recognise that business moved to Ireland because of their previously low rate of corporation tax and other benefits.
The EU have been posturizing for months ever since the Brexit vote was received but that is their vain attempt to frighten the weak willed into believing that we cannot survive outside of the EU. I do note it seems to be working in some quarters. However, the popular opinion seems to be resolving that most people now want to see Brexit happen whether they supported it at the referendum or not.
It is just a shame that Remainers, instead of throwing their weight behind the inevitable, cling to a false utopian hope in a unified Europe.
For the record, my opinion on immigration is that we should allow it. We should let those people into the country who will contribute to the economy, well-being, health and fabric of society.
Careful now Tom, you said on July 23rd, "Living in a democracy means that people have a right to voice their opinion." Are you saying you were wrong then, or you're a hypocrite now? You can't hold both views at the same time.
> In other words, the will of the people
Otherwise known as the tyranny of the masses.
Seems like you're trying to obfuscate things here Edward.
Our electoral system is exactly that, not America's nor is it an industrial ballot. It isn't proportional representation but first past the post. Voting isn't mandatory and it's accepted that of those who actually participate the will of the majority prevails. In other words, the will of the people.
"Regardless Edward,if we don't like we we have the electorate can vote for a government that pledges to provide what it wants, hence my comment about democracy controlling our future and that is a luxury that cannot be understated."
I suppose that all depends upon what one means by democracy. The last time round something in the order of 63% of those who voted in the General Election did not like what the Tories had on offer but the system still returned a majority Tory government to control our future.
In the USA more people voted for Hiliary Clinton than for Donald Trump but their Electoral College nevertheless appointed Trump.
Had the EU Referendum been held under the restrictions which the Tories want imposed on trade union industrial ballots then the result would have been declared null and void because the vote for taking action, i.e. leaving the EU, was less than 50% of those listed as being entitled to vote.
When discussing 'The Will of The People' (or membership) in relation to election or ballot outcomes then one should differentiate between those who actually voted, those listed as being entitled to vote and the population as a whole. Three very different things.
This is a detached observation, supporting neither side but noting that some things are not quite as black or white as is made out.
All that you have provided is a list of things that may only happen with a nice simple negotiation.
We no longer control the negotiations, we are going to be the but of 27 different countries demands
I am afraid that this unnecessary delusional wast of time will only ensure our country being the laughing stock for
every one with an modicum of intellect.
It's all started well ! We forgot Gibraltar. incompetent Boris ,supposed to be Foreign Secretary.
To May’s repeated requests for immediate, parallel talks on a free trade deal while departure terms are discussed, an emphatic “No”. To her unsavoury gambit that the rights of EU citizens in Britain be used as a bargaining chip: another resounding “No”. To the government’s attempt to bypass the issue of the Irish border: “No.” On special, sectional single market deals for car manufacturers and the City: “No.” Likewise, the idea that the UK could somehow elude the EU principle of freedom of movement and EU jurisdiction during a post-2019 transition: it was not going to happen, said Tusk.
It has become crystal clear that not only will the EU set the agenda for the exit talks, it will also control their pace, parameters and conclusions – or else, no deal at all. It will be the EU, not Britain, that decides when “sufficient progress” has been made to allow talks on trade to commence. It will be the EU that sets the terms governing the transition needed to avoid the cliff edge so feared by business. And it will be the EU that decides whether Britain has paid its dues. Nobody in last year’s Leave campaign talked about a leaving bill of up to £50bn. They will have to now if they want to make progress.
Hi Bacchus, Let me know if this is enough for you as I have dozens and dozens of examples if you need them. I can also provide a significant number of Remain lies which have not come to fruition since the Brexit vote in addition to the George Osborne example below if you need them.
- 31 March 2017: Siemens chief executive Joe Kaeser met Theresa May at Downing Street where he said he was “confident and optimistic” about the “big opportunities” in Brexit Britain: “There is no reason not to invest tomorrow, if there is a demand and a commitment from the customer. I am willing – and the company is willing to invest – further. There are more opportunities than risks for us.”
- Ryanair advert, 31 March 2017: “Brexit means Bargains”
- Chairman John Nelson confirms on 30 March 2017: “London will remain the major financial centre for Europe. It’s certainly going to remain the major financial centre for Lloyd’s.”
- From office of national statistics on 21 March 2017: 6.2% rise in UK houseprices in the year to January, up from 5.7% last month (despite George Osborne’s [prediction that they would fall by 18%
- 21 March 2017: CBI - Export orders at U.K. factories have jumped to the highest level in more than three years.
- 16 March 2017: Toyota today announces an investment of more than a quarter of a billion pounds into the UK, contrary to previous warnings from the firm and car market analysts over Brexit. The Japanese company has a major plant near Derby where it manufactures its Auris and Avensis models. About 75% of cars made at that plant are exported to EU nations.
Hi Alf I am sorry if I misrepresented you , please could you let me know what your views are on immigration are. As for facts, now that the phoney war is over and we get down to some serious negotiations we will see some facts. Here are some to be going on with.
There will be no extra money for the NHS, there will be no extra money for anything.
We will be reliant on immigrants for a long time to come, like it or lump it.
The pound is worth much less and imported good, food etc will cost more.
We will have to settle our debts ,as we are an honourable country.
We do much less business with Australia than we do with Greece for an example of new deals to be done.
Please list all the benefits we will see if we live long enough to reap them ( pounds in our pockets)
Regardless Edward,if we don't like we we have the electorate can vote for a government that pledges to provide what it wants, hence my comment about democracy controlling our future and that is a luxury that cannot be understated.
"A new age has dawned, democracy now controls our future."
We might have better knowledge of that in a couple of years' time when (if) we see the terms of whatever deals are negoatiated between the UK and the EU, plus whatever changes the government makes to existing laws. It might be better to reserve judgement until the details are known.
My comments are that you don’t understand or choose to misrepresent the views in respect of immigration of the majority of people I know who support Brexit.
You then confirm my opinion by seemingly inferring that I should refuse treatment from any immigrant in the NHS. Can you see why the Remain side lost the argument if your opinion is typical of the misrepresentation of reality?
You quote a number of points which you have absolutely no evidence is or will be the case and present them as fact. The issues of lying to the public in this debate lies fairly and squarely on the Remain side as much as on the Brexit side. The difference is that most of what was promised (threatened) by the Remain establishment hasn’t actually materialised.
Indeed there is significant evidence that the opposite is happening to much of what was said. If you cared to look out for it, you may actually see it.
Hi Alf , I hope you remember next time you use the NHS to refuse treatment from any " immigrants "
Let us know how you get along .
A new age has dawned, democracy now controls our future.
Perhaps I can tell the council that I shall not pay any more council tax but still demand that my bins are emptied and the Police and Fire sevice, amongst others, be at my beck and call and see where that gets me I am going to a confectioners the buy a cake, publicly declare that this is indeed my cake and then eat it!
It is also amazing how many remainers quote an immigration scenario that most people supporting brexit do not want and have no intention of supporting.
I wonder if it is just to frighten others or that they simply do not have the capacity or will to actually understand the immigration issue.
Yawn, a fairly typical remoaner looking exclusively at what we hypothetically won't have rather than what we will for certain have.
Well it seems ages since we debated on this thread. I suppose the usual contributors are all away skiing with the toffs. In the mean time I have cancelled my membership at the local gym, but I have told them I will be back to use the 3 or 4 pieces of equipment that I like the most . So that's all good.
Lets catch up.
It seems there will be no £350 million per week for the NHS after all ...shame. As David Davis has indicated we will have to rely on immigrants for many years to come. The divorce settlement will be about €50 billion but we will probably negotiate that down to €25 billon and how much better off will the folk of Scunthorpe Boston and Stoke be after the dust settles not a lot, after the pounds fall has put the shopping basket up
We can always do a deal with that nice President Trump, I'm sure he will be willing to help us out!
No Rozzer, I am not a bitter remainer, just someone saddened by the self-inflicted mess foisted on the nation by politicians trying to be too clever by half and using the general public to quell rifts in the governing party. Well it seems to have worked, most of the Tories are now toeing the party line but the rest of the nation is split asunder and reduced to trading insults left,right and centre.